The headline Q2 number, 288.9t bought, +62% YoY, flatters itself. It’s a selling story wearing a buyer’s coat. In Q1, Turkey sold ~75t through currency-defence swaps, gold pledged and due to return, and Azerbaijan trimmed 22t. Russia sold ~22t, as it did again in Q2. By Q2, Turkey’s swaps had slowed to 4t and Azerbaijan didn’t repeat. Russia’s steady 22t became the quarter’s largest single sale. Not because it grew, because everyone around it went quiet. The core buyers, China, Poland, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan remain.

Russia’s position deserves care in the telling. Exports are running at record volume, yet revenue is down, squeezed by a widening Urals-Brent discount (back to $27/barrel by July), a third of refining capacity knocked offline by Ukrainian drones, and a stronger ruble. The National Wealth Fund’s fiscal rule draws gold and FX automatically when oil revenue falls short. That’s the mechanism working as intended, not a country in retreat. Reserves eased from 2,327t in January to 2,277t by August. 2% of the total, ~6-9t/month, 10 straight months. The reserve is paying out exactly as it was built to.

China and Poland remain the trade’s spine. China’s declared 2,346t undersells the truth; analyst reconstruction of London bullion flows points north of 5,000t, because the PBoC buys in London specifically to step away from the dollar, and the metal moves long before Beijing ever confirms it. Poland is buying toward 700t on record. NBP’s Sobon put it plainly: “the price is not a primary consideration for us.” That’s insurance against a Russian border, not a trade idea in the Azerbaijani sense.

The clearest tell sits in the split. Gold ETFs sold 45t out of North America the same quarter central banks bought 289t net. Same metal, same quarter, opposite instincts. Insurance capital and trading capital, pulling in different directions.

H1’s total, 345t, is still the weakest since 2022. Buying hasn’t sped up. Turkey’s crisis simply faded while Russia’s steady drawdown carried on. China and Poland never needed a reason to stop.

Three things to watch from here. The Urals-Brent discount, which sets Russia’s pace. Poland’s climb toward 700t, the clearest confirmation the buy side holds. And the gap between UK gold exports to China and what the PBoC actually discloses, still the sharpest read on how fast the world is really leaving the dollar behind. The next WGC print lands late October. That’s when we find out which way this is really running, until then we play our favourite sport; speculation.

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